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In recent National Football League seasons, a pattern has emerged. By Week 8 of the season, the Most Valuable Player conversation often turns into a predictable story, highlighting names like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.

Between 2015 and 2019, the NFL saw four debut MVP recipients – Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Mahomes, and Jackson. But in the last five years, only Allen has entered that list as a new winner.

Allen is the frontrunner to claim back-to-back this season, which would mark the fifth in six years a previous winner has taken the award. But voter exhaustion is real; everyone craves a new star. This year’s pool of first-time candidates feels unusually deep and exciting. Maybe they won’t win this year, but let’s examine the players who could challenge the Mahomes-Allen-Jackson triumvirate in the coming seasons.

A few notes: the ratings below reflect each player’s odds of earning the award in the coming years, not necessarily this season. We’ve also excluded regular contenders like Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott to shine a light on some longer shots.

Sam Darnold, Seattle

No longer a laughing matter: Darnold is currently one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In his time in Minnesota, it was tempting to dismiss his ascent. Critics could cite the scheme and his strong teammates. That’s no longer the situation in Seattle.

The Seahawks’ running game has not yet gel. The offensive line is improved but still trails behind the league’s best. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the five best receivers this year, but he’s been lifted by Darnold’s choices and precision.

Seattle has redesigned their attack around Darnold, who is still 28 years old. They hunt big plays, relying on Darnold’s ability to throw the ball downfield. In that role, he looks more like Stafford than the player we saw during his Jets tenure. Early in his career, Darnold had trouble under pressure, often forcing expensive turnovers. He’s mostly removed those errors from his game. Whereas before he saw ghosts, now he makes plays when blocking fails or the offense structure collapses.

Look through any quarterback metric you like, and Darnold is among the top. He tops the league in the RBSDM composite, which measures the value of every offensive play and attributes credit to the quarterback. The QB who ends up on top in that metric typically finishes in the final three for MVP voting.

After five weeks, Darnold has shown that last year’s showing in Minnesota was not a accident. This is now who he is, and it’s been an upgrade for Seattle over Geno Smith. If he can guide the Seahawks to a division crown, the comeback story could propel him into the discussion with Allen and Mahomes.

MVP Probability: 7/10. This current season could be his best opportunity to claim it.

Mayfield, Tampa Bay

Talking of turnaround arcs. There was a period when the Panthers employed both Darnold. Oof. Mayfield has transformed from a practice squad pass-rusher in Carolina to a starting quarterback in Tampa Bay.

The MVP is, to some extent, a narrative award, and not many have a cooler journey than Mayfield. Burrow, Stafford, and Prescott are more skilled quarterbacks. But there is something about his story that should earn extra credit from voters. Several franchises moved on on him before he landed in Tampa. He’s had three different offensive coordinators in the past three seasons, yet has continued to pilot the Bucs offense at a high level.

Mayfield hasn’t been as sharp this year as he was in 2024. Down to down, he’s been a bit scattershot. But he’s working in a difficult situation: Tampa’s run game has stalled, and the O-line has been weakened by injuries. Yet in spite of those problems, Mayfield is playing the best football of his career. He’s already guided the Bucs to four comeback drives this season and leads the league in Big Time Throw Rate. He is achieving more with limited resources, including waltzing into Seattle with a injured line and scoring 38 points on one of the best defenses in the league.

In an time before modern analytics, Mayfield would be leading this year’s MVP conversation. He has carried his team on his back to a greater extent than any other quarterback in crunch time. Voters still value that trait, but not quite to the identical degree they did in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Most Valuable Player Likelihood: 4/10. His risk-taking style will lead him to lose a couple games.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Daniels came back from injury against the Chargers on Sunday and reminded everyone why, last year, he was the most impressive rookie to enter the league in a generation. Daniels tore apart the Chargers in the second half on the away, carrying the Commanders to a decisive win in LA.

It hasn’t been the easiest start to his second season. The Commanders’ team-building strategy around Daniels has been peculiar. They’ve tried to fast-track success, recognizing they have something unique with a quarterback on a low-cost rookie contract. But they’re left with the oldest roster in the league by a significant margin. And it shows, particularly on defense.

Over the near term, Washington’s roster construction could limit Daniels. But he remains a single-handed supernova at the game’s most important position. He is the most similar quarterback in the league to Jackson: a accurate passer who is also electric with the ball in his hands as a runner. If he can push the Commanders past the Eagles at the summit of the NFC East in the next couple years, he will be a sure thing for the award.

Most Valuable Player Likelihood: 8/10. The most certain player from his highly-touted rookie class to win in the next three years.

Herbert, LA Chargers

It was all going so well for Herbert and the Chargers. Two weeks into the year, it felt like this was his year. At last, the pieces around him were in place. And the Chargers had transitioned to a Herbert-centric offense, turning from a run-focused team into a passing one. It was as if Jim Harbaugh set out with the goal of winning Herbert the MVP award as much as he was looking to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West.

That’s different now. The Chargers have lost several players along their offensive line. They lost a very winnable game against the Giants and were hammered along both sides of the line of scrimmage by the Commanders. The degree of difficulty for Herbert at this point, this season, is too high. Even to keep the chains going, he has to strap on his hero cape. That’s fun in small samples – and helpful for the MVP award when it is under a national spotlight – but not sustainable over the slog of a regular season.

Herbert has MVP ability. When the Chargers are healthy, he is the top candidate for the award among the players on this list. He fits the description: the appeal of freshness, the playmaking, the winning. He meets the eye test and holds a monopoly over some of the most advanced metrics. But it won’t be this year.

MVP Probability: 9/10. In time, the Chargers will stay healthy, and Herbert will succeed.

Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars

The MVP is a quarterback award – the most recent non-QB to win it was Adrian Peterson in the 2012 season. Still, playing on both sides of the ball is a big advantage for anyone trying to challenge the quarterback dominance.

It’s been an inauspicious start for Hunter as a two-way star. The Jags have bounced back and forth between mainly using him on offense and defense. Last week, they settled on a 40-snap rotation on each side of the ball. And that feels like the appropriate figure for a rookie trying to adjust to the pace of the professional game while learning a complex offense and the league’s most disguise-laden defense.

Hunter has been fine as a rookie, but he hasn’t been an instant gamechanger. There have been flashes of the ability that made him the Heisman winner, but he has yet to take over a game while playing both ways. At some point, the Jags may settle on using him on a single side while only using him on the field for specific packages the opposite way. But that’s not the strategy at the moment.

That may make Hunter’s development curve steeper, but it also increases his MVP potential. Who else could plausibly have double-digit touchdowns as a receiver while also grabbing five or more takeaways? If Hunter realizes his Ohtani-like potential on each sides of the ball, voters will overlook the quarterbacks.

Most Valuable Player Probability: 5/10. The only “defensive” player who has a sniff.

Drake Maye, New England

Maye exploded into the national spotlight with his {performance