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Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a resolute approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "severe ramifications" last August if Russia's president continued hindering truce talks, Trump ultimately imposed major sanctions on Russia's biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously affected the Russian leader's capacity to support his war effort in the region.

Yet, via his newly presented detailed peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly created by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or EU participation, the former president has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Aggression

This proposal would effectively benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in peril. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the initiative in reality compromise that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate experience, Trump seems to consider the war as a basic territorial dispute, like giving Russia a portion of Ukraine's land will satisfy the leader. However, Putin's military campaign is not simply about dominating a destroyed area of economically weakened area in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to destroy it so it stops acts as an enticing model for the Russian people of the accountable governance that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Border Surrenders

While keeping in status the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would compel Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk region. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been failed to occupy in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this surrender would render Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital in case he subsequently opt to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a action that would facilitate future fighting more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of this lower number. Notably, the plan imposes no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's legitimate leadership as extremists, Trump's plan declares: "All extremist belief system and actions must be rejected and prohibited." Apparently to highlight this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump places no condition that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Security Commitments

Admittedly, the proposal has Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its position of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". However given that Putin has violated similar agreements in the history – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's borders in return for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should anyone believe this commitment on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on western security guarantees. While the plan promises a "immediate joint armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics include unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Putin from restoring his weakened troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

An additional supplementary accord apparently would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "significant, planned, and continuous military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. But unlike a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best defense against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of alliance members, such as the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not