How Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in the president's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.