Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
