🔗 Share this article

After netting nine goals in his initial seven league matches, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.

While it is not his most impressive beginning to a season - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in two seasons ago and 10 last season - it nonetheless positions him with a three-goal lead in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this none of his nine goals have been from the penalty spot renders it particularly impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Certainly, physical problems might significantly impact in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so soon in the campaign.

To begin with, the number of goals he has already scored - and, just as importantly, the quantity and caliber of chances he is getting.

And second, the slow start his usual rivals for the prize have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) represents how many goals a top-flight footballer has traditionally converted from the number and quality of chances he has had.

This doesn't represent a number randomly picked by statistical experts, but by historical Premier League data.

And if we look at players' xG in the English top division so far this campaign from regular situations, the Norwegian striker is obtaining considerably more excellent scoring situations to convert than anyone else.

Actually, even if Haaland wasn't superior at finishing chances than anyone else in the division, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as the remainder of the league.

Opportunity Analysis

That is demonstrated by breaking down the total and standard of scoring situations that players have had in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this term, a dozen more than all other attackers.

That is actually not that remarkable for him - he had previously registered more open-play attempts at this stage in the most recent two terms (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What is, however remarkable even by his standards is the quality of chances he has had this term. His efforts have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.

This number represents is that players have historically converted the attempts he's taken at a rate of 27%.

Among footballers attempting at least 10 shots, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to score on average - thanks to a several close-range conversions against the Hammers and Seagulls.

The Norwegian's expected goals of an average of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 xG rating per attempt he had at the opening of last term.

To summarize, the chances he has had in this campaign have been notably easier to find the net from in a reorganised City team than those at the opening of last term.

Previous Season Assessment

Opening a term so impressively is, as mentioned above, typical for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last season he had netted ten times - four additional compared to any other player and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Reds attacker who secured the scoring title with 29 conversions, seven more than the Etihad attacker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

In fact this has been the quietest start to a English top-flight campaign the Egypt forward has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It's not merely Salah who has begun modestly either. When examining at the top 11 scorers in the English top division last campaign, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the remaining ten footballers put together so far.

Be it because of fitness issues - several key attackers - protracted transfer stories in one particular striker's situation or just due to the fact that their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's likely rivals in the contest for the top scorer award have not fired so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Although the Norwegian appears the obvious frontrunner for the English top scorer award, what about the European Golden Shoe that is given to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's top-five leagues?

That race is considerably more open at this early stage because two world-class strikers have also started in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions respectively.

The reality Haaland has scored so many times and has the greatest expected goals of the trio without yet taking any from the penalty spot positions him as the favourite.

Yet given that the two continental superstars are among the finest converters in European football in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the competition remains open.